2021 NFL Draft prop odds cheat sheet: How each first-round team's options stack up for their top picks
Here's what the betting market is saying about the first round of the draft.
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With the 2021 NFL Draft quickly approaching, fans and bettors alike are digesting as much information as possible in anticipation of finding any hints of which 259 players will be selected, and more importantly, in what order. We know that the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to take Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 -- in fact, there's so little drama in the selection that William Hill Sportsbook has made Lawrence the -10000 favorite to go first overall, meaning for every $100 you bet, you stand to win a whopping $1.
We know you didn't land on this page looking for information on whose going first, so let's dive deeper into the draft and break down everything you need to know about 2021 NFL Draft props. In this space, we'll go team by team, sharing the relevant odds for every club picking in the first round. We'll also include the projected pick from CBS Sports senior draft analyst Ryan Wilson's three-round mock draft published Monday. All NFL Draft prop odds provided by William Hill (updated Monday, April 26).
If you want to see my favorite props to play, you can check out my 10 best bets on 2021 NFL Draft props as well as my five favorite longshot lottery plays, including one that would cash 50-to-1 if it hits. Also be sure to check out Vegas insider Todd Fuhrman's top NFL Draft prop picks, as seen on CBS Sports HQ.
Wilson's mock: OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Cornerback is the heavy favorite for the Cardinals, but it's quite possible they're in no man's land at No. 16 with the top two at the position likely off the board and others possibly being seen as a bit of a reach. That brings OL into play as a potential value at +500, which is also reflected in the two players posted with draft position over/unders at 16.5. However, it's been receiver that's on the move in recent days, jumping O-line as the second favorite for Arizona at +350.
Wilson's mock: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
Clearly the expectation is that the Falcons wind up taking Pitts at No. 4, which has only piled on juice on both the Falcons' first pick and the first non-QB selected props, but with much bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, speculators could be rewarded by taking Defense +450 or one of the longer shot exact position props with the hope Atlanta can engineer a trade down with a team looking to move up for a QB or even Pitts, Sewell or Chase.
Wilson's mock: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
Even though wide receiver is the clear favorite in the exact position prop, the general prop on the Ravens' first pick gives the edge to them taking someone on the defensive side of the ball. Options around No. 27 include Moehrig-Woodard, the top safety on the board; Collins, a huge linebacker who may be ticketed for a role off the edge; and Ojulari, another edge option. With two late first-round picks in tow, expect one to be on a receiver and the other likely on the defensive side, but the players available at No. 27 will dictate the order.
Wilson's mock: LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa
While some may think Harris is a possibility for Buffalo if he's on the board, Etienne could also be an option if both are available, as some teams are expected to have the Clemson runner on top of their positional boards. Corner or defensive line is likely the place to look with the defensive side of the ball a heavy favorite in the general prop, and two edge rushers check in with draft positions right around Buffalo's pick.
Wilson's mock: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
While the Panthers could be in the mix for a QB even after trading for Sam Darnold, the most likely scenario has them taking an offensive lineman, which has moved from +130 to +100 in recent days. But which one? It's possible Sewell, the top OL in the draft, is scooped up before Carolina is on the clock, and while they could just turn to Slater in that case, some believe he's destined to land inside rather than at tackle. If Sewell is gone, Carolina could be a trade-down candidate.
Wilson's mock: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
Offense is a heavy favorite over defense for Chicago's first pick, whether it's landing the best available O-lineman at No. 20 or finding a way to trade up for one of the top five QBs. But two defensive players check in with over/unders right around Chicago's pick, so it's possible Defense +240 has a better chance of cashing than the market is projecting. That would figure to come via a corner like Farley or Greg Newsome if it happens.
Wilson's mock: OL Penei Sewell, Oregon
With the Bengals a longshot to trade around the board early in the draft each year, and with Pitts, Chase and Sewell widely expected to be the top three non-QBs off the board in some order, there's not even an option to bet on offense vs. defense as of this writing. Sewell would seemingly be a great fit for an offensive line in need of talent, as kicking Jonah Williams inside would allow two upgrades for the price of one, but the market is clearly leaning toward Chase being the pick, with WR moving from +100 to -130 in recent days.
Wilson's mock: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State
The Browns are a bit of a wild card when it comes to expected position drafted, as +250 is one of the longer favorites on the board of any team. But the expectation is certainly heavily weighted on the defensive side of the ball. Though Moehrig-Woodard's draft position prop is right around Cleveland's pick, it would be a surprise to see him on the Browns after they invested heavily in John Johnson this offseason, but players like Collins, Ojulari and Barmore make a lot of sense.
Wilson's mock: CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina (trade to No. 15)
A case of someone knowing something? Clearly the expectation is that the Cowboys go cornerback as that has moved from +100 to -225 in recent days. That sure seems like a logical path with Surtain and Horn expected to come off the board right around this pick, though if both happen to come off the board before the Cowboys are on the clock and they can't trade down, an offensive lineman like Slater makes sense.
Wilson's mock: Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Even though quarterback is the heavy favorite for the Broncos, it's possible they could need to trade up if the guy they want makes it out of the top three. If they don't like who's available at that position, it's possible they look to the defensive side, though I'm not sure any linebacker is worth drafting in the top 10, and the Broncos attacked the cornerback position in free agency. That makes Denver a pretty big wild card if they stay put at No. 9.
Wilson's mock: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Jared Goff is unlikely to be the long-term answer at quarterback for Detroit, a team that has needs everywhere and can reasonably be expected to pick high again next year. That may make the 2021 draft more about amassing draft capital and trying to build a good enough core that can surround an eventual top pick at football's most important position. Receiver is the most pressing need, but Detroit has so many of them that it shouldn't be too big of a factor in their selection.
Wilson's mock: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida
Like Charlie Brown lining up to finally kick that football, the market is once again projecting a receiver as the most likely position the Packers address at the top of the draft, with three key options checking in right around their pick in their draft position over/unders. If the path to the Super Bowl is going to depend on slowing down Tom Brady again, it's certainly possible taking a position like corner, linebacker or D-lineman comes through for speculators.
Wilson's mock: S Devine Deablo, Virginia Tech
The Texans are currently without picks in the first or second round after sending both of theirs to the Dolphins in the Laremy Tunsil trade. The closest draft position over/under on the board belongs to Clemson offensive lineman Jackson Carman, who could be a fit inside at guard for Houston.
Wilson's mock: OL Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
Offensive line is the clear favorite for Indianapolis after the retirement of Anthony Castonzo, especially after they filled their hole at QB created by another retirement via the Carson Wentz trade. With the offensive line likely to also be a priority for teams picking in the No. 10-20 range, Jenkins' draft position prop may be a few spots too high with the Colts as a potential floor.
Wilson's mock: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Nothing to see here. Trevor Lawrence will be the pick at No. 1, with the miniscule chance a team makes a godfather offer to Jacksonville to land him instead, and you can't even play that lottery ticket by making a longshot play on the Jaguars to draft another position first since those odds aren't available. What would that deal even look like? Six top-64 picks? Eight? Ten?
Wilson's mock: CB Aaron Robinson, UCF
The Chiefs answered a major issue on the offensive line by trading back from No. 31 to 58 in the deal to acquire tackle Orlando Brown. After their position props came off the board in the wake of the trade, they've come back up with receiver leading the charge. It's anyone's guess who's going to be available 58 picks into the draft, so if you're playing the prop, taking a gamble on a longer shot might be the play.
Wilson's mock: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
The Raiders are facing a ton of turnover on the offensive line this offseason, which is why OL checks in as the favorite in the exact position prop even though Defense has a clear edge over Offense overall. Two offensive lineman have draft position props right around the Raiders' pick at No. 17 as well. However, Las Vegas also has needs on every level of the defense, so O-line is no lock to be taken here.
Wilson's mock: OL Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
With Justin Herbert in the fold as the franchise quarterback, the Chargers turn toward solidifying the core around him. The biggest area of need appears to be at tackle, where the odds have shifted from +110 to -130 in recent days, and with O-line the favorite for the Chargers' first pick it seems like the draft position odds on a player like Darrisaw is destined to drop a couple spots to better align with the obvious pairing. Corner could be an option as well if Horn is available.
Wilson's mock: WR Rondale Moore, Purdue
The Rams are without a first-round pick after dealing it to the Jaguars in the Jalen Ramsey trade, and they traded their next two first-rounders away in the Matthew Stafford deal, meaning they'll have skipped the first round of the draft every year from 2017-23 unless something changes.
Wilson's mock: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
It's interesting that receiver is such a heavy favorite for the Dolphins considering the market appears to be leaning toward the Bengals taking Ja'Marr Chase at No. 5. Waddle is certainly in play for Miami if that happens, but his current draft position is at 11.5 (Under -150), so this would be considered a big reach based on those odds if they don't trade down again. DeVonta Smith also checks in at 11.5 (Over -145) on his draft prop.
Wilson's mock: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
The market has shifted in terms of Minnesota's pick in recent days, with defense now seen as a slight favorite over offense and defensive line drawing closer to offensive line. Darrisaw and Vera-Tucker could be options for Minnesota, but they may have their pick of edge rushers with none expected to be taken in the top 12. Paye had been the heavy favorite to be the first defensive lineman selected but Jaelan Phillips has gained steam in the prop in recent days and surpassed the Michigan D-lineman.
Wilson's mock: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State (trade to No. 10)
If New England actually is targeting a quarterback, their preferred player may not be on the board midway through the first round. Of course, Bill Belichick has never been shy about trading up and down the draft. OL and DL look like excellent values considering the talent expected to be available here and the number of quality players you need on your roster on both lines.
Wilson's mock: CB Greg Newsome, Northwestern
The Saints are one of the biggest wild cards in the first round, featuring +275 as a favorite in the exact position prop. Corner, D-line and receiver all make sense as potential options, and I wouldn't rule out linebacker either considering the names that should be on the board at No. 27.
Wilson's mock: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama
The Giants earn the interesting distinction of being the one team with flat odds on the offense/defense prop, even though WR and OL are the favorites in the specific position prop. Basically, the market has no idea what the Giants will do. They invested heavily in the O-line in last year's draft and added a big receiving talent in free agency this year, but both positions could use more talent, as could edge rusher and linebacker.
Wilson's mock: QB Zach Wilson, BYU
Wilson has been the assumed pick at No. 2 for quite some time; hence needing to risk $30 to win $1 on the second overall pick prop. Justin Fields is certainly an interesting lottery ticket in case our assumptions are flat out wrong, but you'd figure to need much better odds than 12-to-1 to take a shot there.
Wilson's mock: CB Patrick Surtain, Alabama
There's a few options for the Eagles on both sides of the ball, though the offense is considered a favorite over defense with potential game-changers at receiver possibly available in Smith and Waddle. It really depends on whose available; if Philadelphia is faced with a decision between one of those receivers and one of the top two corners -- say, Smith and Horn are still on the board -- I'm not sure which way they go.
Wilson's mock: EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State
The Steelers were yet another team with OL as the favorite for their first pick, but in recent days running back has shot to the front of the line. The offense figures to be a higher priority with their first pick than the defense (just look at those odds, which have gotten even more lopsided recently), but the board may fall in a way that a defender is the best player available. Najee Harris' draft position prop is at 28.5 with Travis Etienne's slightly higher.
Wilson's mock: QB Mac Jones, Alabama
San Francisco obviously moved up to take a quarterback, so no need to hang odds on the position they're drafting or offense/defense. But which one? Both Fields and Jones have been the presumptive favorite at different times during the predraft process, but a recent report from Ian Rapaport has them deciding between Jones and Lance, which shifted the odds considerably.
Wilson's mock: EDGE Joseph Assai, Texas
The Seahawks traded their first-round pick to acquire Jamal Adams, but if they did end up picking in their original slot in Round 1 this year, it would be their highest selection in the first round since 2012. Basically, waiting patiently to take a player has long been the Seahawks' M.O. Assai would be a great value for Seattle if they can land him at No. 56, but Perkins may be a more realistic target.
Wilson's mock: QB Davis Mills, Stanford (traded to No. 44)
After Tom Brady brought a title to Tampa, the Bucs were able to retain most of their big-name free agents in the hopes they could make another run at a Super Bowl. Defensive line makes plenty of sense as the favorite for their pick, but it'll likely just come down to who's on the board when Tampa Bay is on the clock as they look to improve depth on the roster. Cornerback is an interesting option in that regard considering the talent expected to be available.
Wilson's mock: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
Tennessee lost several key players on both sides of the ball during the offseason and focused mainly on fortifying the defense with pieces like Bud Dupree, Kevin Johnson, Janoris Jenkins and Denico Autry. A.J. Brown figures to see a lot of double coverage if Tennessee doesn't add more passing-game options, but it may be a bit of a stretch to draft a receiver with their first pick without first trading down.
Wilson's mock: LB Jamin Davis, Kentucky
It's a bit odd to see Offense as such a heavy favorite for Washington; not that they don't need it, but O-line options may be a bit picked over and quarterback may require a trade up. Teven Jenkins could make a lot of sense despite his higher draft position over/under, and the teams picking in the 17-22 range certainly suggest the value lies on his Under. If they don't like the OL options, linebacker makes sense on the defensive side of the ball.
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