Cincinnati @ Miami

The Bengals aren't going to score much against this Dolphins defense. Cincy generated 155 yards of offense last week. And even with Ryan Fitzpatrick expected to start, I expect a conservative offensive gameplan from Miami. Myles Gaskin is back and the Dolphins will lean on him to control the clock. Go Under.

Tua Tagavailoa might not play. So what? The Dolphins are equally effective -- or ineffective -- with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Other certain and likely absentees will conspire to deliver a low score. For the Bengals: QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon and G Alex Redmond. For the Dolphins: Every runnig back on the recent active roster other than Patrick Laird. Burrow’s stand-in, Brandon Allen, will find Miami’s pass defense suffocating. With Fitz in for Tua the past two weeks, Miami has managed a measly 33 points. A cropped ground game will cap its scoring in the mid-20s.

The Bengals offense could do nothing with Brandon Allen at quarterback last week, gaining just 155 yards and turning the ball over three times. I don't expect much to change against a talented Miami defense that just feasted on the Jets for the second time this season. But the Dolphins offense hasn't been impressive since the bye, averaging just 261 yards in five games and putting up big point totals thanks to their defense giving them free points and short fields. That could certainly happen again here, but I just don't see the Bengals holding up their end of the bargain and scoring enough to push this one over.

Tua Tagovailoa is apparently going to start, and that means more conservative play from the Dolphins than with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, the Bengals will have Brandon Allen against a solid Miami secondary. The Dolphins have gone Under the total (7 times) more often than Over (4), while Cincy is 5-5-1 to the total, and that was mostly with Joe Burrow. Take the Under.

The Dolphins' defense is ranked second in the NFL in points allowed at just over 18 per contest. Miami rarely is a double-digit favorite but should have a big day on both sides of the ball. The Bengals are a banged-up group, have very little experience under center and will get very little help at the RB position. It doesn't matter who is at quarterback for the Dolphins. Their offense is rolling and is facing a struggling Cincinnati defense.

Miami is coming off a 20-3 win over the Jets as a TD-plus road favorite and is a big favorite here. Favorites on grass are 0-20-2 ATS against non-divisional opponents when they are coming off a 14-plus point win as a road favorite in which they had at least 28 minutes of possession. The Dolphins are 0-20 ATS when hosting a non-divisional opponent that had at least two fewer wins the previous season. The Bengals are 9-0 ATS since the start of the 2014 season on the road on grass following a loss in which they had more punts than third-down conversions, committed fewer than four turnovers and had less than 120 rushing yards. We are grabbing this big number.