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nfl - Sun 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC | Hard Rock Stadium |

Cincinnati @ Miami

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
MIA -10
-10.5
Over / Under
43
42.5
ML
MIA -550
-550

Matchup breakdown

Cincinnati
Miami
PROJ SCORE
4-10
W-L
10-5
9-6
ATS W-L
11-4
8-7
O/U
6-9
-5.2
PT DIFF
6.4
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Fri 12/4

Cincinnati @ Miami | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

UNDER 42.5

WIN

The Bengals aren't going to score much against this Dolphins defense. Cincy generated 155 yards of offense last week. And even with Ryan Fitzpatrick expected to start, I expect a conservative offensive gameplan from Miami. Myles Gaskin is back and the Dolphins will lean on him to control the clock. Go Under.

+433 21-15-2 IN LAST 38 NFL PICKS
+89 2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA O/U PICKS

Mike Tierney

Top Dog
Sat 12/5

Cincinnati @ Miami | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

UNDER 42

WIN

Tua Tagavailoa might not play. So what? The Dolphins are equally effective -- or ineffective -- with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Other certain and likely absentees will conspire to deliver a low score. For the Bengals: QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon and G Alex Redmond. For the Dolphins: Every runnig back on the recent active roster other than Patrick Laird. Burrow’s stand-in, Brandon Allen, will find Miami’s pass defense suffocating. With Fitz in for Tua the past two weeks, Miami has managed a measly 33 points. A cropped ground game will cap its scoring in the mid-20s.

+430 24-18-2 IN LAST 44 NFL PICKS
+138 9-7 IN LAST 16 CIN O/U PICKS

R.J. White

Super Stat Geek
Fri 12/4

Cincinnati @ Miami | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

UNDER 42.5

WIN

The Bengals offense could do nothing with Brandon Allen at quarterback last week, gaining just 155 yards and turning the ball over three times. I don't expect much to change against a talented Miami defense that just feasted on the Jets for the second time this season. But the Dolphins offense hasn't been impressive since the bye, averaging just 261 yards in five games and putting up big point totals thanks to their defense giving them free points and short fields. That could certainly happen again here, but I just don't see the Bengals holding up their end of the bargain and scoring enough to push this one over.

+1670 78-55-5 IN LAST 138 NFL PICKS
+650 12-5 IN LAST 17 CIN O/U PICKS

Brett Anderson

The Dog Whisperer
Sun 12/6

Cincinnati @ Miami | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

UNDER 43

WIN

Tua Tagovailoa is apparently going to start, and that means more conservative play from the Dolphins than with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, the Bengals will have Brandon Allen against a solid Miami secondary. The Dolphins have gone Under the total (7 times) more often than Over (4), while Cincy is 5-5-1 to the total, and that was mostly with Joe Burrow. Take the Under.

+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL O/U PICKS

Bill Marzano

Veteran Handicapper
Sun 12/6

Cincinnati @ Miami | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

Miami -10.5

WIN

The Dolphins' defense is ranked second in the NFL in points allowed at just over 18 per contest. Miami rarely is a double-digit favorite but should have a big day on both sides of the ball. The Bengals are a banged-up group, have very little experience under center and will get very little help at the RB position. It doesn't matter who is at quarterback for the Dolphins. Their offense is rolling and is facing a struggling Cincinnati defense.

+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ATS PICKS

SDQL Gurus

Serious Scientists
Sun 12/6

Cincinnati @ Miami | 12/06 | 6:00 PM UTC

Cincinnati +10.5

LOSS

Miami is coming off a 20-3 win over the Jets as a TD-plus road favorite and is a big favorite here. Favorites on grass are 0-20-2 ATS against non-divisional opponents when they are coming off a 14-plus point win as a road favorite in which they had at least 28 minutes of possession. The Dolphins are 0-20 ATS when hosting a non-divisional opponent that had at least two fewer wins the previous season. The Bengals are 9-0 ATS since the start of the 2014 season on the road on grass following a loss in which they had more punts than third-down conversions, committed fewer than four turnovers and had less than 120 rushing yards. We are grabbing this big number.

+480 7-2-1 IN LAST 10 NFL PICKS

Cincinnati

player
QBBrandonAllen
11.22fan duel$6,000
11.82draft kings$4,800
11.64cbs sports
player
RBGiovaniBernard
10.49fan duel$5,800
12.65draft kings$5,200
8.84cbs sports
player
RBSamajePerine
4.55fan duel$4,600
4.88draft kings$4,000
4.39cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
B. AllenBrandon Allen20/342130.961.500.5011.6
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
G. BernardGiovani Bernard12.2410.293.30.168.8
S. PerineSamaje Perine7.0290.254.10.074.4
B. AllenBrandon Allen3.290.032.90.5011.6
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
T. BoydTyler Boyd5.1580.2311.30.067.4
T. HigginsTee Higgins4.0580.3414.60.098.1
A. GreenA.J. Green2.9360.1412.40.034.4
G. BernardGiovani Bernard3.3250.127.70.168.8
D. SampleDrew Sample1.8180.0610.30.072.1
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
C. DSTCIN DST1.960.690.481.21.41.5

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, C.J. Uzomah, Auden Tate, John Ross, Darius Phillips, Trae Waynes, Shawn Williams, D.J. Reader, Amani Bledsoe, Tony Brown, Josh Tupou, Renell Wren
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

Miami

player
QBTuaTagovailoa
17.27fan duel$6,700
18.08draft kings$5,900
20.26cbs sports
player
QBRyanFitzpatrick
2.28fan duel$7,400
2.28draft kings$6,000
2.61cbs sports
player
RBMylesGaskin
13.64fan duel$5,500
16.89draft kings$5,900
11.44cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
T. TagovailoaTua Tagovailoa20/302361.800.610.2720.3
R. FitzpatrickRyan Fitzpatrick2/3260.200.070.012.6
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
M. GaskinMyles Gaskin15.0620.344.10.1911.4
P. LairdPatrick Laird3.5140.073.90.461.9
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
D. ParkerDeVante Parker5.1740.5314.60.0510.7
M. GesickiMike Gesicki3.1460.3515.00.036.8
M. GaskinMyles Gaskin4.4330.047.40.1911.4
J. GrantJakeem Grant2.7310.1911.30.064.4
D. SmytheDurham Smythe1.7170.3010.20.023.6
L. BowdenLynn Bowden Jr.0.7100.0615.10.032.0
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
M. DSTMIA DST2.621.501.012.32.63.0

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Salvon Ahmed, Matt Breida, Preston Williams, Malcolm Perry, Albert Wilson, DeAndre Washington, Allen Hurns, Davon Godchaux, Nate Brooks, Vince Biegel, Jonathan Ledbetter
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 12/06/2020 17:01 GMT