Control of the NFC wild card is up for grabs here, and it shocks me that everyone is all over the 5-5 Seahawks simply because they have found an ability to run the ball and are first in the league. That's great, but let's not forget the Panthers are seventh on the ground and have a better passing offense with Cam Newton thriving under Norv Turner's watchful eye. Seattle has played quite well on the road this year, but Carolina plays great at home. This is the proper line for this game, and I have the Panthers as just a couple points better than it. This will be a close one, but I'm bucking the betting trends here and siding with Carolina.

Carolina has won all five home games this season, covering four of them while winning by an average of 10-points, but Seattle has been road warriors going 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 away games. Great running teams travel well and the Seahawks have the best running game in the NFL. Seattle is the play.

The Seahawks are the better team right now, and I don't give the Panthers the full three for home field, so I think this line is a good bit off. The Seattle run game is rolling, racking up 150+ rush yards in seven straight. The Panthers have one of the worst red-zone defenses in the league, so the Seahawks should be able to pound the ball into the end zone when they get there. Seattle also has an efficient passing offense that is more dangerous with Doug Baldwin finally at 100 percent. Don't overrate the travel factor; the Seahawks have been just fine playing 1 p.m. ET games.

The Seahawks have been trending in the right direction, and this weekend my advanced computer looks for them to take another step. Carolina hasn't looked good in consecutive losses to the Steelers (allowing 52 points) and Lions (upset 20-19 defeat). Seattle is winning outright in more than half my simulations -- taking the points improves its winning odds to 60 percent.