Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
Yes the Broncos played the Chiefs tough in Denver. But except for dismantling Arizona 10 days ago, the Broncos have been horrific on the road. They're 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games. With the line dipping below a key number, I'll ride the Kansas City covering machine.
I'd look for a -9.5 on this line, but either way, I think you have to play the Chiefs to keep rolling. Chiefs should score a ton of points like usual, and they've reached 38 in five of their seven games. That could be even easier if Von Miller and Brandon Marshall can't play (both are questionable). Royce Freeman is out for the Broncos, and that throws a wrench in the rushing attack. I wouldn't trust Case Keenum on the road to keep up with the Chiefs offense, and with Vance Joseph 0-6 ATS in 1 p.m. games, I'm willing to lay the big number.
The Chiefs have covered all seven of their spreads this season while averaging 37 ppg. Their spreads are getting inflated now and yet they still keep covering. But the area where the inflation has been too much for them to consistently beat is the totals. They've stayed Under in three of their last four games, a run that began with a 27-23 win at Denver (53.5). KC has stayed Under in seven of their last eight as the favorite. Under is the play.
The public is head-over-heels in love with Kansas City. It has pushed the line up to double digits, which has created an opening for underdog Denver. The Broncos have come out of a swoon with a narrow defeat against the perfect L.A. Rams and a demolishing of Arizona. The latter game was on a Thursday, and Denver should be rested. This marks its third meeting against QB sensation Patrick Mahomes, so the Broncos know him better than any other team. In fact, they led K.C. by 10 points early this season at home, only to fall by four points. All of which has generated a spread on steroids.
The Broncos are not a bad football team, but where they struggle is in stopping the run. Outside of their performance against the Arizona Cardinals, this team has issues within the defensive front seven, doing a bad job in getting run fits. The Chiefs are the AFC version of the Rams and do a great job of keeping the pressure on a defense. Their own defense seems to have found a bit of a rhythm and some chemistry lately. I can feel more comfortable in the Chiefs defense getting stops, more so than the Broncos in this game.