The Saints win and cover seemingly always against the Panthers, and as Carolina proved yet again last week on the road at Atlanta, it simply cannot be trusted to be consistent on either side of the ball. I expect the Saints to keep the Panthers on tilt all night, while Carolina will not be able to do the same to New Orleans' defense. Saints win. Saints cover. Again.

The Panthers have won seven of their last nine, covering six of them. I'm a fan of Ron Rivera as his teams are always prepared to play. While Carolina lost both regular-season meetings with the Saints, New Orleans went 2-5 ATS down the stretch and its defense has shown some cracks, allowing 288 passing yards or more in four of the last seven games. Take the points.

Normally, getting Carolina and nearly a touchdown in a first-round game is appealing. Not so with New Orleans, which has covered in six straight gong back three seasons and downed the Panthers by 21 and 10 points this season. Another dissuading factor is QB Cam Newton's sudden wildness, which does not bode well against a defense that has risen from dismal to decent. A revived ground game that pounded the Panthers for a combined 297 yards in those matchups has taken some responsibility away from QB Drew Brees -- not that he couldn't handle it. RB Alvin Kamara has been a godsend to a team primed to make noise in the playoffs.

The Saints have covered six straight meetings, and the Panthers haven't shown down the stretch that they can change that. Lay it.

New Orleans might make a strong contribution to an Over by reaching 30 points. I’m skeptical whether Carolina can fulfill its modest responsibility. Panthers QB Cameron Newton has been hit-and-miss, infected by the overthrow while completing just half of his passes the past two weeks. Carolina was held to under 260 yards in both. Newton eclipsed 200 aerial yards in just two of the last nine games. The offense has hit a roadblock. New Orleans’ defense is vastly improved over the four previous editions, which renders the Over pattern in the series somewhat obsolete. Zeroing in on this matchup, Saints CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle), who was idled for the regular season series, is back. Newton has been hamstrung by injuries to his WRs, with deep threats Curtis Samuel (ankle) and Damiere Byrd (arm) shelved. The Saints, with their resurrected rushing attack, can ring up plenty of points. The Panthers? Not so much.

The Saints seem to be the kryptonite to the Panthers defense. New Orleans has put up 30 points twice against Carolina this season. The biggest key will be to protect the lead once they get it, which has been an issue with the Saints at points during the season. It won’t be in this playoff matchup. Lay it.

The Saints have been outstanding at home this year, with their only loss in New Orleans coming in Week 2 against the Patriots before their defense had started to gel. The teams that have beaten them when they've been on the road have been able to attack in multiple ways. That's not the Panthers; the passing game had major issues in the second half. The Saints ran for about 150 yards in each of their first two meetings with the Panthers, and I think Drew Brees can pick apart this secondary. Saints win this game by at least a touchdown.