Suns' Chris Paul injury odds fallout: SportsLine Projection Model remains very high on Phoenix NBA futures

The Phoenix Suns have the NBA's best record by far at 48-10 coming out of the All-Star break, and they are the +450 favorites at Caesars Sportsbook to win the franchise's first-ever NBA title even though All-Star and future Hall of Fame point guard Chris Paul could miss the rest of the regular season with a thumb injury. The SportsLine Projection Model (see below) has slightly downgraded the Suns because of that injury but also potentially sees a silver lining.

Paul suffered an avulsion fracture in his right thumb during the Suns' final game before the break and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. The playoffs begin on April 16, which is about eight weeks exactly. Paul actually did play very briefly in Sunday's All-Star Game. He is averaging 14.9 points and a league-leading 10.7 assists and hadn't missed a game, which is pretty impressive at age 36 (37 in May).

The Point God did miss the first two games of last year's Western Conference finals after testing positive for COVID-19. The Suns won both at home to take a 2-0 lead on the Clippers in a series they ultimately won 4-2. Backup point guard Cameron Payne played great in those two games and will be counted on huge again -- might be a wise Fantasy pickup -- but hasn't played himself since Jan. 22 because of a wrist sprain. He likely will be ready for Phoenix's first post-break game Thursday at Oklahoma City. Phoenix also has Elfrid Payton and Aaron Holiday on the roster who can man the point.

Losing Paul could cost Phoenix a chance at the best record in franchise history as the Suns won 62 games in both 1992-93 and 2004-05. The SportsLine Projection Model downgrades the Suns from 65.1 wins to 62.4 without Paul and drops the team about 3 percent to win the West and just under 2 percent for the NBA title. The model is assuming Paul misses 21 of the team's remaining 24 games.

As model creator Stephen Oh notes: "Paul has a history of getting hurt late in the season and as long as this injury heals and doesn't impact his shooting and ball handling ... then having fresh legs for the playoffs could be good in the long run."

Phoenix's preseason win total was set at Over/Under 50.5, so the team is going to rocket Over that number. 

Looking for the best picks against the spread, sharp plays on the total, and props you can take straight to the pay window? Join Jonathan Coachman on the Early Edge as he speaks with SportsLine's top handicappers to preview the day's biggest games. We promise to keep it short, sweet and to put some green in your pocket. Early Edge is in your feed every single day by 11 a.m. ET. Subscribe right here on YouTube to watch daily, plus don't miss the Early Edge specials and live shows!