Kristaps Porzingis to Celtics odds fallout: Boston new 2024 NBA title favorite per sportsbooks, proven model despite losing Marcus Smart in trade with Grizzlies, Wizards

Late last night, the Boston Celtics' rumored three-team trade for Wizards big man Kristaps Porzingis fell apart because the Clippers backed out. However, the Grizzlies have been subbed into the mix in place of the Clippers, Porzingis is a Celtic and Boston is the new +460 favorite at FanDuel to win the 2024 NBA title, just ahead of reigning champion Denver (+470).

This version of the trade was more costly for Boston. The plan was to originally send Malcom Brogdon, the 2023 NBA Sixth Man of the Year, to the Clippers. This version sends Marcus Smart, the 2022 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, to Memphis. Going from Memphis to Washington is Tyus Jones, the best backup point guard in the league -- who would start for many teams.

The Grizzlies are also sending Boston their first-round pick in Thursday night's draft -- the 25th overall selection -- and the Warriors' top-four-protected first-round pick in 2024, while the Celtics are sending the 35th pick draft to Washington. The Celtics are also sending forward Danilo Gallinari and center Mike Muscala to Washington as part of the deal. It came together right before the midnight ET deadline for Porzingis to opt in to his $36 million player option for the 2023-24 season.

The Unicorn had his best season last year, averaging 23.2 points on 49.8% shooting, 8.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.5 blocks per game with a team-best 20 double-doubles. Porzingis, NBA MVP Joel Embiid of the Sixers and the Lakers' Anthony Davis were the only NBA players in 2022-23 to average at least 20 points and 1.5 blocks per game. In Value Over Replacement, which is the NBA's version of WAR, Porzingis was 22nd in the league at plus-3.5. Nikola Jokic led at plus-8.8. The Celtics were a little short on size, so this helps them deal with the likes of Embiid (and maybe Jokic) in the playoffs.

No doubt the loss of Smart will hurt, as he ends his nine-year stint with the Celtics with the fourth-most steals in franchise history (since the stat became official in 1973-74). Only Paul Pierce, Larry Bird and Rajon Rondo had more. I'd expect Derrick White, also a fine defender, to move into the starting lineup in place of Smart.

It's important to note that all sportsbooks have different futures prices, for the most part. Boston has supplanted Denver as the title favorite at FanDuel. At DraftKings, the Celtics and Nuggets are now +475 co-favorites, although Boston was alone atop the board for a few hours. The two teams are tied at +500 (Boston moving from +550) at BetMGM. At Caesars Sportsbook, Boston remains a +500 second-favorite to the Nuggets (+450).

It's surprising Memphis would trade Jones, because they need a point guard for at least the first 25 games of the 2023-24 season with star Ja Morant is suspended. Jones, who has led the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio a record five straight seasons, will be due a big-time payday next winter as a free agent and will likely be out of Memphis' price range.

Jones' Fantasy stock for next season has skyrocketed as he'll play heavy, heavy minutes on a bad team. Washington is in full-blown tank mode – a season after it should have tanked for generational prospect Victor Wembanyama, who will go first overall to San Antonio on Thursday. The Wizards pick eighth and have been linked to Arkansas guard Anthony Black.

Boston's 2023-24 futures via the SportsLine Projection Model improved by two wins from 52.8 to 54.8 – the team won 57 games this past season before being upset in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals by Miami – and the Celtics now have league-leading 22.4% shot to win the championship. That equates to +346 on the money line.

Memphis' forecast is essentially unchanged by losing Jones but replacing him with a former DPOY. Washington is down to 31.5 wins after this deal and previously trading Bradley Beal to Phoenix for Chris Paul, Landry Shamet and draft picks. The assumption is Paul will never play a game for the Wizards, whether he leaves via byout or trade. Kyle Kuzma, who also had a career season in 2022-23, has opted out of his contract to become an unrestricted free agent.

The 2023-24 NBA schedule will be out in August, but we should get season win totals at the books well before then. 

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