Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Finals Game 1 odds, trends: Spread action even, heavy money on multiple Nikola Jokic props including another triple-double

The first-ever postseason meeting between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets will take place in Game 1 of the NBA Finals at Ball Arena in Denver Thursday night. Finals games are tipping at 8:30 p.m. ET on weekdays this year. The Nuggets are 8.5-point favorites at BetMGM with the spread action fairly even, but bettors at the book are crushing Nikola Jokic props and expect the big man to score another triple-double. Click here for expert picks.

The Heat (39.0%) and Nuggets (38.6%) have the top two 3-point percentages in the 2023 playoffs. Denver won both regular-season meetings, by five and four points. The Nuggets and Heat are unbeaten in Game 1s in these playoffs. Denver hasn't lost at home. Miami was an NBA-worst 30-49-3 against the spread in the regular season but an NBA-best 13.5 ATS in the postseason.

As of this writing, 49% of the bets and 52% of the handle have come in on Denver against the spread. On the total of 219.5, 56% of the bets and 68% of the money are on the Over. Miami at +290 on the money line is taking 81% of the bets and 64% of the money. Since 2004, home teams are 16-2 straight up and 15-3 ATS in Game 1 of the Finals.

Jokic was named MVP of the Western Conference Finals against the Lakers after averaging a triple-double of 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds and 11.8 assists – he had an actual triple-double in three of the four games and has a single-postseason record eight overall. Jokic is -350 to win NBA Finals MVP. In the past 20 years, there have been 13 players favored at -110 or better to win the award. Odds-on favorites to win Finals MVP have gone 7-6.

Four of the five most-wagered player props tonight are on Jokic: To record a triple-double (Yes +105); to score the game's first field goal (+425); Over 13.5 rebounds (+100); and Over 27.5 points (-105). The two-time regular-season MVP is taking 99% Over/Yes leans on all but the first basket prop. No Heat players are among the five most-wagered props yet.

The Heat are the second No. 8 seed to reach the NBA Finals. The 1998-99 New York Knicks were the first, but that regular season was just 50 games long due to the lockou. The Knicks lost. The lowest seed to ever win the NBA Finals is the sixth-seeded Rockets in 1995. Miami is 3-3 in six previous NBA Finals, while this is the first trip for Denver.

On the series line, Denver opened at -350 and is now -400 with Miami at +300. Denver is taking 72% of the money, but 75% of the bets are on the Heat. The most popular exact result at the book is a Denver sweep with 40% of money there, moving the price from +450 to +425. Denver winning the series in any fashion is a bad result for the book considering Denver was as long as +1400 at one point to win the NBA title and +1000 as recently as Round 1.

There are updated injury concerns for Game 1. Tyler Herro remains out for the Heat but might get back by Game 3.

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

• Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB
• DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks
• Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
• Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.