Heat vs. 76ers Thursday NBA injury report, odds: Joel Embiid now overwhelming favorite for MVP, set at 31.5 points if he doesn't sit out

This writer was rather prescient in his NBA pick for Tuesday night's Celtics at 76ers game, backing Philly and writing: "Joel Embiid could wrap up his first MVP with a 50-burger." Embiid had one of the best games of his career with 52 points in the win over Boston and is now the massive favorite to win his first MVP Award at the various sportsbooks. As of now, the Sixers have no plans to sit Embiid on Thursday against the visiting Miami Heat. Philly is -3 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Philly avoided the four-game regular-season sweep vs. Boston with the 103-101 win. Embiid shot 20-for-25 from the field and added 13 rebounds and six assists to his 52 points. He became the second player in NBA history with at least 50 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and 80% shooting in a game, joining Wilt Chamberlain (twice).

Embiid was the first player in the shot clock era to score more than half of his team's points and shoot 80%. It was his second game this season with more than half of 76ers' points, the most such games by any player since James Harden did so in 2018-19 with the Rockets and Kobe Bryant in 2006-07 with the Lakers.

It's not like the Celtics weren't aware what was going on. Embiid was double-teamed 13 times, and Philadelphia shot 9-for-11 and scored 23 points on those possessions. Meanwhile, Embiid was 10-for-13 on contested field goal attempts. It was his third 50-point game of the season, making him the first center with three such games since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar had five in 1971-72.

"The MVP race is over," coach Doc Rivers said afterward. The sportsbooks agree. Before Tuesday's game, Embiid, the MVP runner-up the past two seasons behind Nikola Jokic, was -210 at BetMGM to win MVP. He's now -1000. At Caesars, he was -250 but is now -1400.

Might Rivers think about sitting Embiid for the rest of the regular season? The Sixers are locked into the third seed in the East. Embiid still has the goal of winning the scoring title for the second year in a row. He's at 33.3 points per game and Dallas' Luka Doncic is second at 32.7 PPG. The last repeat scoring champion was Harden with the Rockets in 2019-20, his third straight title. For tonight, Embiid is set at over/under 31.5 points.

Philadelphia is listing Tyrese Maxey, De'Anthony Melton and PJ Tucker as questionable tonight and really there's no point in playing them – or Embiid, for that matter. It wouldn't shock me if Embiid eventually is ruled out. Nothing good can happen for him tonight, and the MVP and scoring races are indeed over. 

Miami is seventh in the East, 1.5 games behind No. 6 Brooklyn and thus with an outside shot of avoiding the play-in tournament. This is the front end of a back-to-back with Miami in Washington on Friday, so a key player might sit out Thursday. Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry are both questionable.

The Heat and Sixers have split two meetings this season, each winning on the road in a home-and-home set. Embiid missed the win and had 27 points in the loss.

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