Chris Paul trade to Warriors futures fallout: Golden State gets small 2024 NBA title odds boost per sportsbooks, proven model

Chris Paul has to be on any short list of most accomplished NBA players to never win a championship, along with the likes of John Stockton, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley and Patrick Ewing. Paul was traded earlier this week in a surprise from Phoenix to rebuilding Washington for Bradley Beal, but the Wizards flipped Paul on Thursday to Golden State for Jordan Poole and draft picks. The Warriors' 2024 NBA title odds dropped from +1300 to +1200 at both FanDuel and BetMGM and from +1400 to +1100 at PointsBet.

Paul was never going to stay with the Wizards, as they are now in full tank mode after also trading Kristaps Porzingis to Boston and potentially losing Kyle Kuzma in free agency – he opted out of his contract but might return. That Washington got Poole, a protected first-round pick in 2030 and a second-rounder in 2027 for Paul is pretty strong.

Poole, who just turned 24, is about to start his four-year, $140 million contract. He averaged a career-high 20.4 points and 4.5 assists per game this past season, but he absolutely disappeared in the playoffs (10.3 PPG). The writing was on the wall for a possible trade with the Warriors' cap issues and their need to re-sign Draymond Green.

The 38-year-old Paul averaged 13.9 points, 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game across 59 games for Phoenix in 2022-23, but missed the final four contests of the playoffs with a groin injury. The Suns had no chance in the Western Conference semifinals against Denver without him.

Paul might be asked to do something he has never done in the NBA: come off the bench. He has played 1,214 regular-season games since he was selected as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2005 draft out of Wake Forest and started all of them. Of course, the 2023 draft is Thursday night. The Warriors obviously aren't pulling Steph Curry or Klay Thompson out of the starting five, and they would be deploying a remarkably small lineup by also starting Paul. Some of Paul's previous teams (Clippers, Rockets, Suns) have been bitter rivals of the Warriors.

SportsLine Projection Model creator Stephen Oh forecasted Paul to come off the bench and Green to re-sign when he ran his updated forecast for Golden State, and it improves the Warriors from 50.1 wins to 52.3 next season and raises their title chances from 5.0% to 9.7%, which equates to +930 on a money line. Golden State won just 44 games this past season.

With Paul moved to Golden State, the Beal to Phoenix deal was officially completed with the Suns sending six second-round picks -- from 2024-28, plus 2030 -- plus first-round pick swaps in 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2030 to Washington.

And with the Warriors adding yet another superstar, don't be surprised if they are the road opponent in Denver on the NBA's Opening Night of the 2023-24 regular season in October (on TNT) when the champion Nuggets raise their banner. 

Golden State has the No. 19 pick in the first round Thursday, and Washington holds No. 8.

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