Jarrett Allen has had a fantastic year and I feel like all I've done is fade the big man this season. The predominant angle is because Evan Mobley has missed nearly half of the season and Allens splits with and without Mobley has fairly drastic. Allen averages 11.6 Reb + Ast with Mobley compared to 15.2 Reb + Ast without Mobley. While this is certainly a fantastic matchup, there is also some major blowout risk here which could lead to fewer minutes for Allen.

The Cavs have come out a bit flat since the All-Star break and have now lost three of their last four overall. But the most-recent games have an excuse as Donovan Mitchell has been out while dealing with an illness, but he's expected to make his post-All Star debut on Sunday. But let's not kid ourselves, the real attraction here is against the Wiz, which appear in full retreat and suggesting as much when letting the Thunder roll up 147 points in a Thursday blowout, and a -47 point margin across two games since the break. Play Cavs

The Wizards have no answers stopping bigs these days, rebounding or scoring. They are allowing, somehow, 72 points in the paint the last 5 games, 10 more than any other team. And 16.4 second chance points/G in that span, 27th. Allen is averaging 17 PPG his last 10, this is a perfect match-up for him, and even if Donovan Mitchell is back I still see Allen over this. He's scored 18+ in 4 of the last 5 games. Cavs need a slump buster and feeding him for easy buckets will kickstart their lagging offense.

The Wizards are allowing 60 paint points per game on the season and in the last 5 games that figure is a ridiculous 72/G. Trading Daniel Gafford eliminated any semblance of interior defense and real rebounding prowess. Marvin Bagley will be overwhelmed again here and Cavs inside/outside game is a problem. Vegas is starting to jack up opposing center rebound numbers now but Allen averaging 13 rebounds and 14 points vs WSH this year and that was before Gafford trade. I think he scores 20+ Sunday afternoon.

Mitchell has had his way with the WIz from behind the arc, which is hardly unusual for one of the most broken defenses in the NBA. The newest incarnation of Washington's starting five might somehow be the most flawed. In 3 games vs WSH this season Mitchell is 5/10, 5/8 and 4/9 in 3-point attempts. I'm banking on going back to the well in his return from illness. He went for 40 and flirted with a triple double against this team two-plus weeks ago. They are even more bereft of defensive talent and ideas now.

Going back to the well with this prop for Tyus Jones who I've identified as a major regression candidate. In addition to performing above expectations he is facing arguably the league's best defense and naturally assists will be hard to come by. Additionally there is some major blowout potential as well. All signs point under to me.

I'm going to keep fading the Wizards, who return home from a long road trip, usually a tricky spot for the hosts. This group has 10 straight losses and is 8-18 ATS at home. Even if Donovan Mitchell is out against with illness, the Cavs can cover. The spread was 11.5 when they met in DC 3 weeks ago and Wiz were a far more competitive outfit then. WSH allows avg of 128 points during the losing streak, the Cavs are the top defensive team in the East and WSH is 24th in true shooting %. I don't need 130 out of the Cavs to cover this. Wiz has 90, 101 and 106 vs CLE this season. Cavs motivated after dropping 3 of 4.