I have an inkling that Golden State is going to win this game to extend the series to seven games, but I'm not confident enough to take the Warriors to cover the spread. Instead I'm going after the total. Three of the first five games in this series have gone over, including each of the last two, which have featured an average of 204 points per game. Games tend to feature fewer points the longer a playoff series goes, and I think that trend continues on Thursday.

There are many reasons I like the Under: 1) Rest. With so much time off in between games in the NBA Finals, everyone is well rested, leading to defense at the highest level; 2) Familiarity. Playing the same opponent six straight games helps with learning everything about that opponent's offense and 3) No Kevin Durant. Without KD in Game 4, the Warriors were held to 92 points, and the combined points were 197 with the game going well Under. With so much pressure on both sides to win tonight, expect more half-court basketball and a plan by both coaches to slow down the opposing superstars.

With Kevin Durant now out for the season, can the Warriors stay alive at home in Game 6? It should be noted that Kevon Looney (chest) was unable to finish Game 5 due to his injury. He’s expected to try and tough it out Thursday, but if he can’t stay on the floor, his absence would deal a huge blow to their interior defense. I think this game is close and give the Raptors a favorable chance to win, so I’ll take the points.

The Raptors are more than worthy of the NBA title if they can somehow manage three road wins in the Finals against the Warriors, even if the defending champs are hampered by injuries. Golden State managed to eek out a Game 5 win without Kevin Durant most of the way. The Raptors dominated the previous two games in Oakland, and the move on this number from an opener of -4 shows they have many believers for a third such performance. But the price is now basically a pick'em to support the Warriors somehow finding a way to win the final game played at Oracle Arena. Value lies in supporting this notion.

The Toronto Raptors left the door open for the series with game 5's meltdown. With Toronto having won three straight games at Golden State oddsmakers have condensed the point spread. Look for the Warriors' final game at Oracle Arena and improved defense to give them an edge to push this series to seven games. Grab Golden State

If not for Nick Nurse's silly timeout with about three minutes left, this series would be over. The Raptors still have all the matchup advantages they had in the previous games in Golden State. They're not emotionally fragile. Grab the points.