The Rockets have won 10 of 11 with James Harden and Clint Capela playing as well as they ever have. While Houston is missing a couple key pieces, the Rockets should have enough to keep this one close. The Warriors, though they come off two impressive road wins, have been consistently overvalued at home. They've failed to cover their last four at Oracle.

The Warriors have failed to cover four straight home games, but Thursday night's prime-time showdown with Houston provides a great opportunity to get on track. This team seems to just coast through the regular season but a rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals should be enough motivation for Golden State to want a statement performance. We saw in that series that the Chris Paul-less Rockets pose much less of a threat to the Warriors, who should pull away Thursday night.

The Rockets have won and covered their last five games and are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11, most of which came without Chris Paul. The Rockets won 107-86 against the Warriors, who were without Steph Curry, in November. The Warriors looked amazing in their last two, both on the road, at Phoenix and at Portland, but they're too erratic. They lost two straight at home before that. The Rockets have it more together right now so I'm riding them with the points Thursday.

This is a pretty big spread considering the Rockets have won 10 of their last 11 games. They aren’t just beating bad teams, either, since they defeated the Celtics, Thunder and Blazers during that stretch. They might not win this game on the road without Chris Paul (hamstring) and Eric Gordon (knee), but I don't think this turns into a blowout, so I’ll take the points.