Wednesday, September 27 MLB odds, props, trends: Big action on Astros' Framber Valdez, Tigers' Tarik Skubal

The Astros and Mariners conclude a series with massive American League playoff ramifications tonight in Seattle. Houston holds the final AL wild card spot but Seattle is only a half-game back. The Astros start ace lefty Framber Valdez in the rubber game, and he's No. 1 among player prop action on the DraftKings board, followed by Tigers ace lefty Tarik Skubal vs. Kansas City.

Neither the Astros or Mariners are out of the AL West race, but Texas leads Houston by 2.5 games and Seattle by 3, and the Rangers are heavy favorites to win tonight at the Angels. It's most likely Wild Card or bust for Houston and Seattle, and one team may miss out entirely. Both clubs did catch a break when Toronto, which holds the second Wild Card spot, was upset Tuesday at home by the Yankees – and the Jays could easily lose again tonight with AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole taking the ball for New York. Toronto is 1.5 games up on Houston.

Valdez Over 17.5 outs recorded (-150) is his popular prop. He is 12-11 with a 3.39 ERA on the season with 193 strikeouts and a 1.10 WHIP in 30 starts. He was shockingly shelled last time out by a bad Kansas City team, allowing seven runs in 5.1 innings. However, Valdez had recorded at least 18 outs in his five previous starts.

It's fairly notable when he doesn't go at least six innings and record a quality start. Valdez has a 3.57 ERA in 10 starts since the beginning of August despite allowing at least six runs on three occasions during that span. Long story short: He's likely getting at least 18 outs unless he's bombed or gets injured. This year against the Mariners, he is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in two starts – both in Houston.

Detroit and Kansas City are playing out the string, but the Tigers might be AL Central contenders next year if Skubal can stay healthy as he has emerged as one of the top lefty starters in the Junior Circuit. The 26-year-old got a late start to 2023 due to injury but is 7-3 with a 2.95 ERA, 94 strikeouts and 0.92 WHIP in 14 starts. In four starts this month, he has 1.04 ERA and 0.62 WHIP with 35 strikeouts and just four walks in 26 innings.

Skubal Over 6.5 strikeouts (-135) is the top prop. He struck out a season-high 10 last time out in Oakland and has whiffed at least seven in seven straight starts. Skubal faced the Royals in Kansas City on July 18 and struck out only three in four innings, but that was early in his season and Skubal was still a bit rusty. The SportsLine Projection Model has Skubal tallying 6 Ks. 

Tonight's other popular MLB player props at DraftKings:

Phillies' Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 strikeouts (+100) and Over 1.5 walks (-190) vs. Pirates: Philadelphia is locked into its playoff seeding so it has nothing to play for. Will the team let Suarez pitch at his usual length or pull him early to rest for the playoffs? He has walked at least two in seven straight outings.

Cardinals' Jose Fermin Under 0.5 batting strikeouts (-105) at Brewers: Why is the anonymous Fermin among the most popular plays? He's only playing with St. Louis long eliminated from the playoffs and because Nolan Arenado has been shut down. Fermin has struck out at least once in three straight games. Perhaps it's related to Brewers starter Wade Miley's relatively low strikeout rate.

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