Caesar’s. Chase Burns has cleared this line in 13/17 games this season, with exactly seven strikeouts seemingly a key number, finishing with that number six times. He’ll face a Phillies lineup that’s struck out at a 24.7% rate against righties over the last month, and at a 29% clip against power pitchers this season (with a .608 OPS, both replicating their struggles from a year ago). Burns should be on a longer leash tonight with the Reds bullpen a bit overused, and this being his final start before the All-Star Break. I have him projected at eight punchouts, so I don’t mind laying a partial unit at plus odds on a 7.5 line as well.

The Phillies go with a bullpen game here and the Reds send ace Chase Burns to the mound. I currently have the Reds over 4.5 runs as one of the best overs on a team total today, with the projection over six runs here, so I'll play that at -113 for one unit as well. Backing Chase Burns in the F5 against a smattering of pitchers from the Phillies bullpen, and at this price, is appealing and showing some value too.