Yordan Alvarez leads the league in hitting and is second in home runs with 11, but I think the value today is with his teammate, Christian Walker, who has 7 home runs on the year and is just starting to get hot. He comes off back-to-back games against the Yankees hitting a home run, including Sunday, when he went 3-for-4 with 4 RBIs. He’s had a home run in three of his last six games, and I think he'll hit Shane Baz. Walker is a very streaky hitter, and he's in a groove right now, so +490 is very attractive.

The Astros are the No. 1 over team in baseball at 21-8, which is 72.4% of their games. Their success in getting over the total stems from having the worst pitching staff in baseball. Both the starters (5.97 ERA) and relievers (6.31) rank last in the league, and today they have to start one of those relievers, Kai-Wai Teng, as an opener. The Astros have gone over the total in their last three games, including Sunday when they beat the Yankees, 7-4, featuring a home run by Christian Walker with his 7th, who is a live candidate today to hit another one. Astros-Orioles over.

Kai-Wei Teng gets the start for the Astros and he's been very solid so far in 2026 (albeit, in a bullpen role). It's unknown how long he will go, but I think he can keep the Orioles bats relatively quiet early. Shane Baz goes for The Orioles and he has been downright bad over his last few outings: allowing 11 earned runs over three games and a ton of traffic on the bases. It doesn't help Baz that the Astros are pretty great against righties. I also lean to the Astros over 2.5 First Five at +120.