Orioles SP Shane Baz hasn’t been sharp, but when he has been, it’s been away from Camden Yards. That checks with the last couple years; he’s nearly two runs better. That would be good here in KC vs. a struggling Royals lineup. Meanwhile, the O’s can get to Kris Bubic, who’s given up 4-5 runs in his last two starts not vs. the White Sox, and a bullpen that has a 6.53 ERA the last two weeks.

It's not easy backing a Royals team that only has 7 wins in their first 23 games, but I think we've got a good spot to lean on a Royals First Five. As usual, I'm leaning on the pitching matchup with Kris Bubic over Shane Baz. Bubic hasn't been great to start the season, but his metrics are far more favorable than Baz. The Royal bats have been quiet, but they do fare better against righties and Baz allows enough baserunners that I think we get a Royals First Five winner.