Wrong team favored? Yes Kansas City has been a huge disappointment and has dropped seven in a row. But six of those were away; the team has played a mega-road heavy schedule thus far and really struggling away but is 5-5 at home. And the Royals' best starter, at least so far, pitches Monday in Seth Lugo (1-1, 1.48 ERA). The Orioles have lost five of six overall and are 4-6 away. Kyle Bradish has a 6.00 ERA in two road starts. I flip-flopped on whether to play a half unit at around +100 but instead will go a full on this since I think the Royals should be slight favorites behind Lugo. The model gives this an A grade.

We have a real barn burner on Monday night in Kansas City, with a team that has lost seven straight games (KC) vs. a team that has lost 5 of its last 6 (Baltimore). But I'll roll with the home team in part due to the success of Seth Lugo thus far, whose 1.48 ERA has been about the only bright spot to the Royals' brutal start. Expect him to be the stopper, keep the Orioles in check, and get Kansas City back on the winning track.