Aaron Judge is homering in nearly 50% of our simulations. He's 2-for-6 in his career against Cade Povich, and both hits were home runs. He also has 3 walks and 0 strikeouts against Povich. Judge has a 1.263 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, while Povich has allowed an .884 OPS and 13 HRs in 12 home starts. We set the line at +130 for Judge to homer.