Eugenio Suarez has struggled since joining the Mariners prior to the trade deadline, but he may be starting to get things going after a 3-4 day with two doubles yesterday. He's hitting just .171 against left-handed pitchers, but interestingly, his HR rate is slightly higher per at-bat against lefties despite hitting .260 with 27 HRs against right-handed pitchers this season. Jesus Luzardo has given up 13 HRs this season—all to right-handed hitters. Righties have a .770 OPS against Luzardo compared to just .476 for lefties. The model loves this matchup for Suarez, and we set his line around +170 to hit a HR.

This road trip is dragging for the Mariners, who have now lost in Baltimore, Queens, Williamsport, and Philadelphia across the past week. Though Seattle has won 8 of the last 10 starts made by Luis Castillo, he's off of maybe his worst of the season vs. the Mets, blasted for six runs and nine hits in just 4 IP, bailed out only because the Mariners scored 11 runs. Castillo has also allowed six homers in just 15 1/3 IP across three starts this month. Meanwhile, for the Phils, Jesus Luzardo has settled down on the mound after a very rough patch in July, with a 2.52 ERA across his last four starts, three of those being wins for Philly. Play Phillies on the Run Line.