It's going to be a bullpen game today for the Royals, as Angel Zerpa will be first to the mound but not likely to last much more than the first inning. Though KC has gone the opener route before this season and has ample relief corps depth to make the strategy work. Mostly, we're simply looking to go against the Braves, whose offense has stirred a bit in this series but still saddled with unpredictable pitching, not helped by Erick Fedde's first start (very bumpy) for Atlanta last night; another recently-added arm, Joey Wentz, gets the call today as not much more than an opener himself. Note the Braves' 3-8 skid since the All-Star break. Play Royals on Money Line

We were on Sean Murphy the other day, and while he didn't connect, the model sees another strong opportunity today. The Royals are going with a bullpen game, and while their bullpen is middle-of-the-pack, the weather in Kansas City is a major factor—hot and humid with the wind blowing out. The home run index is a perfect 10/10, meaning Murphy might not need to fully barrel one to get it out. He has 16 HRs in 71 games, and while he hasn't homered in his last 9 starts, we believe he's due. We set his line at +350 to homer.