Matt Wallner is a classic two true outcome hitter—he crushes the ball or strikes out (30.2% K rate). Lucas Giolito has allowed 5 home runs over his last two starts, including 4 in his most recent outing. While Giolito has held batters to a .204 average on the road, he's also given up 9 HRs in 8 road starts. Wallner is 2-for-6 with 3 strikeouts in 8 plate appearances against Giolito, but having seen him before could help. Wallner has 5 HRs in 21 games this July. We set his line at +368 to homer.

Alex Bregman enters this game swinging a hot bat, with home runs in back-to-back games and a three-hit performance before that. He's not striking out much and has been especially productive on the road—9 of his 14 home runs have come in just 31 road games. He's also hit 12 of those 14 HRs against right-handed pitchers. Pierson Ohl has done well limiting home runs in the minors, but facing MLB hitters is a major step up. We set Bregman's line at +350 to homer.