This play is primarily based on Manny Machado facing a left-handed pitcher. He has a .597 slugging percentage against lefties this season, with 7 home runs in just 77 at-bats. Royals' starter Noah Cameron has been very good to start his rookie campaign, but he's still just a rookie. He's allowed only 7 hits in three road starts, but we expect some regression. While Cameron has been dominant against both sides of the plate, right-handed hitters have had slightly more success. We set the line at +370 for Machado to homer.