Ketel Marte's home run odds vary widely today. Nationals' starter Jake Irvin hasn't allowed a home run in his last two starts, but some regression is expected given his career HR rate of 1.4 HR/9. Marte has had success against Irvin in the past, going 4-for-9 with a home run. As a switch-hitter, Marte has the advantage of batting left-handed against Irvin, who has struggled more against lefties. Left-handed hitters are batting .247 against Irvin and have accounted for 7 of the 10 home runs he's allowed this season. Marte is hitting .309 overall, with 7 of his 8 home runs coming as a left-handed batter versus right-handed pitching. We set the line at +280 for Marte to homer, so there is value at +425.

Did the D-backs bottom out in Wednesday's 10-1 loss to the Bucs? At one point Arizona had been outscored 19-0 across one stretch covering the back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh, as the breakdowns extended to sloppy defense and featured the latest disappearing acts by the bullpen, which might bear most of the responsibility for Arizona's sub-.500 record. Tonight, pressure is on Merrill Kelly to stay on the mound as long as possible, but not sure he can outpitch the Nats' Jake Irvin, who spun eight shutout innings at the Giants in his last start. Washington also flies into Phoenix after back-to-back wins at Seattle, scoring 9 in each. Let's make the D-backs win before being scared to go against them! Play Nats on Money Line.