Cal Raleigh is due for a breakout after going homerless in his last eight games after hitting 12 in his first 31. He's still seeing the ball well, evidenced by a high walk rate over the past week. Raleigh thrives against right-handed pitching, boasting a 1.008 OPS compared to just .721 against lefties. He'll face Clarke Schmidt, who has been vulnerable to left-handed bats this season, allowing a .318 average and 1.052 OPS. We project a fair line of +315, so there's solid value at +340.

Seattle's home games have shifted from an under trend last year to an over trend this season, going 12-7 to the over. This is largely due to the absence of top pitchers like George Kirby. Mariners games overall are 24-13 to the over, while Yankees road games are averaging nearly 10 runs. While Clarke Schmidt has typically been an under pitcher, he has been dealing with injuries and 2 of his last 3 starts have totaled 10+ runs scored. We project 9.3 total runs in this game, with the over hitting or pushing in 60% of simulations.

The Mariners are looking to bounce back after a surprising sweep at home by the Blue Jays. Prior to that, they were 12-6 at home. Despite Emerson Hancock not putting up gaudy numbers the Mariners have been good when he pitches, winning 7 of his last 8 starts. The Yankees have been just okay on the road, going 10-9 straight up and 8-11 against the spread. Our simulations show the Mariners covering the spread about 65% of the time, suggesting the line should be closer to -180. At -134, this is a strong value play.