Seattle has been dominant at home, going 12-6 this season after a 49-32 home record last year. Luis Castillo has been a key part of that success, with 13 quality starts in his last 20 home outings and a 2.88 ERA at home since last season. While Kevin Gausman has been better on the road than at home, the Blue Jays are just 1-3 in his road starts this year and continue to struggle away from home with a 6-12 road record. Our model would price this line closer to -180, giving the Mariners strong value at -142.

Not worried with who starts for the Jays here. The M's have the lineup clicking and, yeah, I know it's easier to hit on the road than in this ballpark but the Jays don't hit anywhere. Luis Castillo has a 1.57 ERA at home this season. The Jays have a .607 OPS on the road (27th). Toronto is 5-12 away from home.