It's a big night for Michael King, back in the Bronx with a chance to remind the Yankees what they've been missing since his move to the Padres. King (2.13 ERA) has flourished in San Diego and can pitch beyond the sixth inning, as he did in a complete game shutout of the Rocks a couple of weeks ago. Good news is the capable bullpen behind him as we were reminded last night with 4 shutout innings from the relievers. Meanwhile, Clarke Schmidt (5.52 ERA) had a couple of very bumpy starts for the Yanks before a decent five-inning stint against the Blue Jays, though he continues to get hurt by the long ball (3 homers allowed last 9 IP). Play Padres on Money Line

Fernando Tatis Jr.'s bat has cooled off a bit recently, but he has a great opportunity today. He is hitting .371 with all 8 of his home runs this season coming against right-handed pitchers, despite being a right-handed batter himself. He’s facing Clarke Schmidt, who is dealing with an injury, and ranks in just the 6th percentile for fastball run value according to Baseball Savant. Tatis has historically excelled against fastballs, so if he gets into fastball counts, he’s in a prime position to go yard. We set the line at +280 for Tatis Jr. to hit a home run today, so at +330, there's solid value here.

Michael King will be fired up to face his old team and he is looking like an ace these days. The Yanks are killing lefties but their RH bats will have a tougher time with this guy from the right side. Clark Schmidt has really struggled to get in form after a long injury absence despite not facing many quality lineups. The Padres know how to grind out at bats and make pitchers work and are willing to take their walks. The Yanks are dealing with some key injuries, too.