The humiliation/bounce-back theory gets a test after the Guardians were smoked 11-1 by the suddenly-percolating Twins on Monday. Chris Paddack has also settled down in the Minnesota rotation after a bumpy start, but worth noting that the Twins are still 0-5 in his starts. Cleveland hasn't won the last three games, but already that's the longest skid of the season for the Guardians, yet to lose four straight. Cleveland had won 12 of 16 before this mini-slump, and Tanner Bibee (1.82 ERA in four starts vs. Minnesota last year) is off of his better efforts of the season, allowing just 2 runs across 6 IP of a 3-2 win over the Yankees last Tuesday. Play Guardians on the Run Line.

Steven Kwan continues to be an on-base machine at the top of the lineup . He hasn’t scored in four straight games, but that kind of drought has been rare. Kwan hasn’t gone five straight games without scoring since last August 31- September 7. Facing Chris Paddack, who has a 7.44 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last 10 road starts, Kwan is in a good spot to snap the skid. With the line as high as -140 elsewhere, -125 is good value.