Never mind the 12-15 record that doesn't look so bad...we suspect the Angels might be the worst team in the AL. More telling is the ten losses in the last thirteen, caused in part by a free-swinging offense that appeals only to select rotisserie owners who like homers and not baserunners. This dysfunctional attack has a frightening mere 5 walks and 55 Ks at the plate in the last five games. Pitching is also starting to show cracks. Tuesday starter Jack Kochanowicz has a 5.47 ERA and has lost his last three starts. Meanwhile, the Mariners have won 12 of 16, and while Bryce Miller hasn't been his sharpest in recent starts, he still rates the edge at T-Mobile tonight. Play Mariners on Run Line.

The Mariners are 10–6 at home this year and historically strong at T-Mobile Park (17 games above .500 last season at home compared to 9 games under .500 on the road). They’ve scored 21 runs in their last two games and send Bryce Miller to the mound, who has been far better at home (2.13 ERA since 2023). The Angels, meanwhile, are 7–11 on the road and starting Jack Kochanowicz, who has a 5.00 ERA on the road. Given the Mariners’ offensive momentum and home/road splits, this line is climbing and still offers value at -172.

Bryce Miller’s issues this season have been more about control than hard contact. He’s allowed fewer than 4 hits in 2 of his last 3 outings but has walked 9 batters in those games. The matchup is favorable: the Angels rank third-worst in batting average vs. right-handed pitchers and struggle to string hits together even though they do have the second most HRs against RHPs. Miller has a 2.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP at home since last season, and we project 4 hits allowed in this start.