This is great value on a stolen base prop. Elly De La Cruz has swiped a bag in 3 of his last 6 games, and he faces Edward Cabrera—a prime SB target who’s allowed 26 stolen bases since the start of last season. Our line is +125 which is one of the lowest I’ve seen over the past few seasons. The market is sitting in the +130 to +140 range, so the +180 at BetRivers stands out as a clear value. This is a great spot for Elly to swipe a base.

Overs have been a goldmine in Miami, with a 64-26 record since the start of last season. Today’s matchup looks like another great spot. Both starting pitchers (Nick Martinez and Edward Cabrera) are coming off rough outings, and both offenses are hot. Miami has scored 10, 7, and 6 runs in its last three games, while Cincinnati has posted 7, 8, 5, 25, and 3 in its last five. Our model projects 10.2 total runs and a 65% hit rate for the over, making this a strong play.