Isaac Paredes returns home after a hitless road series in St. Louis, but he was dominant the series before at where he homered in each contest against the Angels. He now faces Kyle Hart, who has been inconsistent in limited action—allowing just one hit in six innings his last start, but failing to escape the first inning in his previous outing, also on the road. The model takes Hart’s road struggles into account, and with Paredes back at home, we like this matchup for the Astros’ 3B. We have this line set at +470, so FanDuel’s +500 number provides value for a player who tends to thrive at home.