We love the over in this spot, with our simulations hitting the over 65% of the time. Marlins home games are averaging 10 runs per contest, and D’Backs road games are seeing 10+ runs as well. The over is 7-3 in Miami this season and went a ridiculous 54-22 last year. Miami’s offense is heating up, scoring 4 or more in five straight games. Arizona continues to mash righties and leads MLB in OPS vs. RHPs. They’ll face a rookie right-hander in this one, adding to the upside for another high-scoring game.

This is a mispriced prop. Carroll’s line is -170 on FanDuel, so getting -110 on DraftKings is great value. Carroll has scored a run in 4 of his last 5 games and is a constant threat at the top of Arizona’s order. We project him for 0.94 runs scored – as high as you’ll see for any player. We’d price this closer to -200.