The Reds have lost four of the last five to the Brewers, and they've lost their last three games 1-0. They've got two wins on the season, but one of them was a 14-3 win against Texas, which jumped their average runs scored to 3.4, the same as a Brewers who didn't score a 14-run game. Maybe a change of scenery is going to be good for the Reds after their first six at home, and they're going to bust out of it soon, but losing 1-0 in three straight games has to weigh on them. The bet here is on the Brewers, who have won three straight and carry momentum into today.

We might regret not using an under tonight in Milwaukee after the Reds became the first MLB team since the 1960 Phillies to lose three consecutive games by a 1-0 score on Thursday. This also reflects quite a turnaround by the Brewers pitching staff, which had earlier tied another wrong sort of modern MLB record when allowing 47 runs across their first four games...but only three in winning all games since! Let's first see Cincy score a run, and Pat Murphy's plan to go with an opener (Tyler Alexander) tonight and let his Milwaukee bullpen do the work should suffice. Though nothing wrong with Reds pitching lately, and Nick Martinez consistently pitched into the middle innings after the All-Star break last season. Play Reds-Brewers Under.

We know Elly De La Cruz has truly elite speed and is willing to grab a base whenever possible. The Reds' offense is stuck in a literally historic rut, losing 1-0 in three straight games. Tyler Anderson is not great holding runners and has allowed 10 SB last 2 seasons. William Contreras has had 2 straight years where teams attempted at least 70 steals and his CS rates are poor in his career (though pop time ticking up a bit very early this year). The Reds need to make something happen. If this speedster gets on first, I think he is going, and third base is usually in play for him as well if he wants it.