Juan Soto goes back to San Diego and I think the Yanks are in a zone while the Pads are ice cold in the lineup. Both teams traveling so no edge to the clergy…

We're not going to want to make a habit out of picking against the Yankees. But we can make an exception tonight with the Padres because of Yu Darvish, who is working on a string of 25 consecutive scoreless innings into this weekend series opener tonight at Petco Park. San Diego also might finally be stirring, winning series vs. the Reds (twice), D-backs, Cubs, Dodgers and Braves across the past three weeks, while Carlos Rodon (4.43 ERA in May) has been very so-so on the mound this month for NY. Play Padres on Money Line

The Padres have hit .217/.290/.338 vs. lefties this season and Carlos Rodon was amazing in Petco Park in 2022 (a complete game victory in which he struck out 12). Meanwhile, the Yankees offense continues to hum along now that Aaron Judge is back to being himself while Juan Soto keeps putting up MVP numbers. Padres' starter Yu Darvish has been very impressive so far this year, but at age 37, he's due for a bit of a downturn and this is the spot. And it's Soto's return to Petco, so there might be some extra adrenaline for him. I love the Yankees here.

Carlos Rodon has been on a strong run, turning in six quality starts in his last eight outings, with at least six strikeouts in five straight. He's been rather dominant against lefties in the small sample size we've seen this year, but Luis Arraez will be one of three lefties in the Padres' lineup (most likely) tonight and he's got a measly 11.5% K rate vs lefties. Given that Luis Campusano is probably at catcher too, the Padres lineup looks to be one of the tougher groups to strikeout as a lefty. Rodon has exceeded this line in five straight but in three of the five he's ended with six strikeouts, so in a tougher matchup I think this should be priced closer to -150.

My simulations have the Yankees winning 56 percent in this matchup which implies a money line price of -127. Rodon should benefit from the pitching environment in San Diego, and the Padres have really struggled against left-handed pitching ranking just 24th in wOBA. The Yankees have a lineup edge and a sizable bullpen edge. Both teams are dealing with cross-country travel as the Padres return home from their roadtrip.