Jack Flaherty has flashed brilliance at times this year, but he's consistently racked up strikeouts no matter the matchup, including punching out seven against the team with the lowest strikeout rate in the league in his last start. That should be enough to expect six Ks as a baseline even against teams like the D-Backs that don't strike out a ton, though I'll note that their lineup is much worse overall against righties than lefties. I think this number needs to be 6.5 for a pitcher with an 11.7 K/9 rate on the season.

Zac Gallen has looked like a completely different pitcher at home compared to how he has performed on the road. Case in point, Gallen has surrendered just 1 ER over 3 starts and 17 IP this season. He gets another favorable matchup against a Tigers lineup that is ranked just 24th in OPS against opposing right handed pitching. I like Gallen's chances of getting in six innings tonight.