Berrios is a guy I rate well below his numbers to date. Faded him last time out and cashed. Will go back. Small play plus money

I love the starting pitching edge for Bal here….so let’s isolate the first 5. You know I have picked on Berrios away from Toronto….let’s keep riding that train.

Looks like all systems are go for Baltimore's lineup tonight so I like getting plus odds here on Jose Berrios to stay under six innings. His last start in Philly heavily skews his home and road splits but we know historically he's been better at home, and this one is in Baltimore. Berrios had trouble with men on base in each inning last time out, finally being pulled after a grand slam by Bryce Harper, which was largely thanks to a walk and two hit by pitches. The O's should regress vs righties at some point, after being league average last year but posting abysmal numbers thus far. Also interesting; in the two starts Berrios has pitched "outdoors" in 2024, he's gone under six innings.

Toronto's Jose Berrios is 10-1 with a 2.98 ERA vs. Baltimore career but the vast majority of those came when the Orioles weren't any good. Berrios has been very good this year, too, but crushed last time out in Philly and generally pitches much worse outside of Toronto. There apparently is a bit of a bug going around the Jays clubhouse too. They are only 5-12 in their past 17. Baltimore's Corbin Burnes, the second favorite for AL Cy Young, hasn't allowed more than three earned this season.

If not for bad luck, Corbin Burnes wouldn't have any luck, at least in his last three starts. He's received all of two runs of support across all of those three games combined, this from an offense that is usually very productive. With a 2.83 ERA, Burnes has certainly pitched well enough to get a few more wins. Meanwhile, Jose Berrios has looked increasingly shaky in his last three starts for the Jays, allowing four homers across that span and KO'd before the 4th inning was complete last week at Philly. The Birds also haven't lost back-to-back games in a month. Play Orioles on Run Line