The Angels ended a five-game win streak by beating the Orioles 7-4 last night. Angels are 10-14 and the Orioles are 15-8 and look every bit as good as last season. The Orioles have also gone 14-7 to the over. Dean Kremer has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts and he hasn't won since his opener. Tyler Anderson has lost his last two starts. Orioles win a scramble game but the over is the best play.

My buddy Propstarz is already on this one and for good reason. Dean Kremer is a pitcher we should continue fading on strikeouts, mostly due to his high contact rates and minuscule 5% swinging strike. Despite the Angels being better than average as a strikeout matchup, at 5.5 I'm happy to fade this number. Kremer has only eclipsed this line one time this year, when he needed 7 full innings and two strikeouts in his final three batters to hit the over.

This is a hefty line for Dean Kremer who has failed to record 6 Ks in three of his four starts this season and 25 of his last 36 starts (69%) dating back to last season. Kremer has struggled out the gate and is sporting a career low 7.9% SwStr%, a whole 2 percentage points below his career average of 9.7%. Additionally Kremer has a career high Contact% and Barrel%. 6 Ks is a big ask for Kremer in his current form.

Locking this in now at -118 on FanDuel. I make the number -137 (57.8% sim win%). I like this Orioles lineup against left-handed pitching, and I have major concerns with Tyler Anderson's barrel rate and massive gap in wOBA vs. xwOBA. I will share more on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.