I don't think the Royals should be home dogs behind ace Brady Singer, who has joined Kevin Appier as the only pitchers in team history to begin a season with 4 starts of at least 5.0 innings, 2 runs or fewer and 5 hits or fewer. Singer's .163 opponents’ average (13-for-80) is tied for 4th best in the majors. Southpaw Yusei Kikuchi has been really good for the Jays, but they also had to travel from the West Coast. KC is 3-1 vs lefties. Normally, I'd hammer the Under 9.5 runs here but that also wouldn't be available normally as winds apparently are blowing out hard at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals have had the better offense so far.

The Kansas City Royals after winning nine straight home games have suddenly dropped two straight. In yesterday’s loss they were shutout for the first time this season. Starting pitcher Brady Singer has averaged just 84 pitches over his last three starts. Tail Toronto who have won six of eight games overall.

Yusei Kikuchi absolutely turned the Yankees lineup inside-out last start, and he's ran up nine strikeouts in back to back outings. The Yankees lineup he faced has been much worse with strikeouts of late than some of their numbers have caught up to yet, and the previous matchup with Seattle was certainly a good one for strikeouts as well. I think the number on Kikuchi should be 5.5 when looking at this matchup with the Royals, who are bottom five for K% to lefties so far (small sample), while Kikuchi's swinging strike rate is only slightly above average and he's struck out nearly 36% of right handed batters, vastly different than his 25% rate last year.

My buddy A-Mags turned me on to this spot and I love it. Yusei Kikuchi has pitched exceptionally well so far this season and sports the highest K rate of his career. If we take a look under the hood, Kikuchi is running red hot on strikeouts and I don't believe his current K rate s sustainable long term. This is also a very tough matchup against a red hot KC lineup that is super stingy against opposing lefties with the 5th lowest K rate against southpaws. This is also a tough spot on the road and first game of the series. We fade.

Brady Singer looks poised to have a career best season and I am going to back the 27 year in old in a tough matchup against a stingy Blue Jays lineup. I would also suggest that Singer is a serious positive regression candidate when looking at his strikeout metrics. Singer is averaging a career best 12% SwStr% which is by far the highest mark of his five year career in the majors. Considering Singer's outs prop is 17.5 and if he gets in 6 IP, I love his chances to rack up 5 Ks today.