We told you yesterday that Paredes is a Yankee killer and in great run-producing form and he cashed for us with a two RBI knock (and had a few other opportunities as well). We like the Rays work against Nestor Cortes and Paredes loves the Bronx and he has 2 HR in 12 ABs vs him. Cortes's act is running a little thin and his antics aren't so cute with all the hard contact against him. I expect Rays to get to him early today, knowing he's vulnerable.

Nestor Cortes was a thing for a year or so, but he's been nothing special since and Diaz tends to hit him hard. Rays having better at bats lately though this guy is in quite a funk. I like him to breakout today. Diaz has 24 ABs vs Cortes with 8 hits, an OPS over 1000 and a couple of homers. All the delays and affectations don't do much for the junk baller when he faces this professional hitter and I like the Rays to flush a tough loss Fri and battle hard to try to tie this series today

Juan Soto is in the midst of a strong first season with the Yankees, hitting .347/.468/.600 in 20 games. He's had 2+ bases 10 times, including in four of his last six, with home runs in two straight, so he's swinging a hot bat. He's had a lot of success against Eflin in his career mostly from his Nationals days, hitting 11 for 25 with four extra-base hits. Eflin has been a mixed back to start the year, with a 20:2 K:BB ratio but also a 4.63 ERA as he's surrendered nine extra-base hits, including four home runs. I'm surprised this number is so juiced to the Under in this matchup.

I lived in Tampa for a decade-plus so while I wouldn't say "expert" on the Rays I follow them simply as it was my job to do so. They are just not that good in 2024. At some point, playing in a mausoleum was gonna hurt them. This is that year. (Yes I am aware a road game but point stands.) Consider a Juan Soto prop. His career splits vs. TB starter Zach Eflin are Buttermaker-esque.