Boston won 8-1 yesterday taking advantage of Quinn Priester. The Red Sox are still without plenty of key bats and now face Mitch Keller who’s off two good outings, only allowing four earned runs in 13 innings pitched. Pittsburgh has also lost their last four games.

Kutter Crawford has been an absolute revelation for the BoSox so far (though I would say throwing nothing but junk is gonna mess his elbow up), but this switch hitter is in his head. Reynolds is scuffling for sure but is 3-for-3 with 2 HRs career vs this starter. I do think Crawford will regress and his control has started to waver a little but in recent starts. I also don't think a whole lot of the Sox pen, their defense stinks (which could help us with a generous IF hit not ruled an error) and get ready to start fading that team as I expect them to plummet.

Kutter Crawford has been nearly flawless through four starts allowing a single earned run and possessing a spectacular ERA of 0.42. Crawford has eclipsed this line in three of his four starts, however I would argue he is running very hot on strikeouts and is due for some regression. If we look at his SwStr% and Contact% it would indicate this as well. Pittsburgh is more of a neutral matchup from a strikeout perspective but everything I value points to the under here.