Paredes is one of the big Rays bats that is in good form, he sees Clarke Schmidt well and this ballpark plays well for him. Proven to be a legit run producer and gets up for these games against the Yankees. Tampa lineup will start to come around here and he's already driven in 12 runs in 15 games

Clark Schmidt is good, at home and the Rays sending Tyler Alexander to the bump. Give me the Yanks to be ahead after 5 (they get all 5 ABs) and we push if it’s tied.

The Yankees have won all three Clark Schmidt starts, but each has been by one run. They also won by multiple runs in just 10 of his 33 starts last year, as he's not effective enough of a pitcher to expect him to carry the load if the offense isn't clicking. This year, the Yankees have seven multirun wins in 19 games, so the percentages are already on our side. We just have to fade a rough outing from Tyler Alexander, who pitched well in six innings of relief his last time out.

The Rays played a third straight one-run game today against the Angels so their bullpen is a bit thin heading into Friday's series opener. The Yankees were off Thursday after an epic late comeback to avoid a sweep in Toronto on Wednesday, so their pen is locked and loaded. And NYY appears to have the clear starting pitching edge in Clarke Schmidt (1-0, 3.68) against TB lefty Tyler Alexander (6.46 ERA). Schmidt has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his past 11 dating to last year. He doesn't go deep so that rested bullpen will likely be important.