When Dean Kremer is bad, he's awful and he loves to give up the long ball. Meatball city. The Brewers were launching them over Waltimore and also had a bunch of bombs to the warning track there that are out in any other park. Right center power alley a little easier to reach in KC and the lefties in this lineup will get their licks in. The Pasquatch has 10 Ribbies in his last 7 games after a slow start

Vinnie wasn't seeing the ball well and was all in his own head last time these teams met. But he's locked in now after a slow start and has made the adjustment to all the offspeed stuff he's getting this year, taking some changeups deep. Dean Kremer gives up a lot of long balls and has a way leaking cutters thigh-cut to power hitting lefties. This guy generates easy power. He's hot. He's rested. He likes hitting in that park even though it's not as HR friendly as some others. That dude in the Sasquatch outfit better keep his head on a swivel

The Orioles had a flawed approach facing this starter a few weeks back, trying to hit everything to the moon and ambush the first pitch, never getting deep into counts or making his labor with men on base. I'd be shocked if the AL's HR and runs leader does that again (though they are surprisingly last in walks). They looked at him as a BP starter last time around and he shoved but I don't think he has the quality to do it again. O's have big advantage in the pen if this becomes a bullpen game (and with Dean Kremer on the mound it might)

I will be crushing these teams all season at home. Why would I not take the Royals cheaper at +1.5 than the Orioles ML? It's probably the weak link of the Baltimore rotation in Dean Kremer, who was blasted for eight runs and 10 hits last time out and allowed three earned over 5.1 IP on April 1 vs. the Royals. KC's Alec Marsh, meanwhile, befuddled the O's at Camden Yards on April 2 with seven strong. Marsh hasn't been near that good since and doubt he is here, but just give us three earned allowed over six and we feel very good about this bet.

Dean Kremer is a solid starter and I'm surprised this line isn't 16.5. Kremer eclipsed this line in 21 of his last 35 starts dating back to last season. He gets a fairly tough draw against the Royals lineup who have a solid offense, however Kremer has excellent career numbers against KC's projected lineup. I like Kremer's chances to go at least 5.1.

This line should be o9 with juice or o9.5 at +100. Dean Kremer and Alec Marsh have both significantly over-performed this season in terms of xwOBA. Both teams rank top 10 in MLB against RHP. I love that we can cash this with a 5-4 game. I'm on the OVER 8.5 (-115)