This has come down at Caesars a fair amount, so we have to do it even if Kansas City is likely to be without Salvador Perez, who is off to an excellent start at the plate. I'm guessing that's why it has dropped. The White Sox are that bad.

The Royals have a significant advantage in the starting pitching department for this game. They will deploy Seth Lugo, who held the White Sox to one run over 6 2/3 innings earlier this season. Lugo has logged at least six innings and allowed two or fewer runs in all three of his starts this year. The White Sox will start Nick Nastrini, who didn’t post impressive numbers at Double-A and has only thrown 26 2/3 career innings at Triple-A. The Royals also have a more dangerous lineup, so look for them to come away with the victory.

Seth Lugo cut right through this lineup about a week ago and he got us 20 outs on just 86 pitches and could have gone longer if the game wasn't in doubt. He's gone at least 6 in all 3 starts and if the White Sox staff can hold things even remotely close for a while - big ask - 7 IP is hardly out of the question. Lugo doesn't hunt Ks, and KC needs to beat up on Pale Hose and Royals bullpen has been an issue. For this pay-out I'll bite. I'm projecting 7 IP on around 95 pitches

Books are starting to wake up to this prop -- not long ago, it only cost about -125 to go Under 0.5 hits for Marty. That's fine, eventually we will just shift to another terrible White Sox hitter soon like we did Sunday.

Seth Lugo had only three strikeouts vs the White Sox a couple of weeks ago and that was with Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada in the lineup (28% K rate each). Lugo has failed to reach even five strikeouts in any start this year, let alone six to eclipse this line. His underlying metrics are not very encouraging either, with a swinging strike rate under 8% and a zone-contact rate just above 90%.

Do you remember that crazy 26-run game the Norfolk Tides (Baltimore AAA) had a couple of weeks ago? Well, Nick Nastrini started that game, where he went only three innings (70 pitches), allowed nine baserunners and gave up four runs. Yes, Baltimore's AAA team is budding with talent, but Nastrini's inefficiency and total baserunners allowed doesn't project confidence for his MLB debut. The Royals have the 7th best OPS vs right handers and a strikeout rate around 20%, which is tough for Nastrini because strikeouts are one of his only strengths. Look for Seth Lugo to handle Chicago's lineup, while Nick Nastrini and the White Sox bullpen let KC record a bunch of runs.

This is turning into a default recommendation against the Chisox, who are not giving us much reason to consider anything else. If the 2-13 record wasn't bad enough, how about only 33 runs scored...with 19 of those coming in just three games! So, that's barely 1 run pg in the other twelve games...talk about pressure on Pale Hose rookie starter Nick Nastrini, making his MLB debut! The Chisox were already outclassed by KC in a four-game Royals sweep, and ex-Padre Seth Lugo has spun a 1.45 ERA in three starts, including a 10-1 win over the Sox on April 4. Play Royals on Run Line

The Royals just beat the snot out of the Pale Hose in KC. Seth Lugo dominated them. Baby Witt and Sally P crushed the ball all over the yard. The Royals shaky pen, well, looked shaky at times but did not crack. The White Sox are a team with no hope and a loooooooooooot of baseball still to play. Their lineup is a farce right now and they are running a kid starter out there who has a 7.71 ERA in the International League. If I could play this at -5.5 I would