Popular play today which makes me nervous, but JT Realmuto perhaps in a minor surprise is in the Philly lineup and Paul Goldschmidt is not in the St. Louis starting nine (good for my Under play of 8.5). Goldy hasn't been very good yet but still a big absence. The Phils appear to have the clear pitching edge with Aaron Nola over Lance Lynn.

Can't say I love this but feel like I'm getting value because only Caesars still has 8.5 with DraftKings and FanDuel already down to 7.5. It is expected to be a bit chilly and rainy with winds blowing straight in at Busch Stadium about 10 mph so purely a weather play. If the Aaron Nola from last Friday shows up for the Phils, we will be fine. Both games so far in the series have landed Under this total.

The Phillies burned me tonight but the offense actually out-hit the Cardinals (eight to seven), despite not scoring. Ryan Helsley is wrapping up the win for St Louis as I write this, and it's his second day of work in a row. After needing to cover 4 innings tonight behind Sonny Gray, the Cardinals bullpen should be a bit thinner tomorrow. Aaron Nola was much better in his second start of the year, aside from walking four batters, finishing one out short of six innings and allowing zero runs. Lance Lynn on the other hand allowed four runs in less than five innings to the Marlins, and has been hit hard nearly half the time so far this year. Riding Philly to bounce back.

Kudos to my brilliant colleague Mike for grabbing this first but absolutely love this spot for the Phillies with Aaron Nola on the bump opposite of Lance Lynn. This is a big advantage for the Phils and I like their chances to come away with a win.

I have the Phillies winning 59 percent of simulations which implies this line should be -144 with Aaron Nola against Lance Lynn. Lynn has had a nice career but he's clearly past his prime in his age 36 season. Lynn has already been barreled 5 times on just 26 batted balls this season.