The Red Sox enter today as winners of six of their last seven games with a fully rested bullpen after yesterday's off day and Sunday's game featuring only one reliever (long reliever Chase Anderson). Boston should feel comfortable going to the 'pen as early as needed here, and that puts pressure on Bello to stack Ks early against an Orioles team that has struck out just 17.5% of the time vs. RHP (a rate that requires 29 batters to reach 5 Ks). While 4.5 feels low for Bello, I think the juice here should be closer to even.

Think we have to take the Red Sox +1.5 at essentially the same price in their home opener as the Orioles are on the moneyline. Boston is the last team to play its home opener and that always means a little more (Sox are 13-6 in their past 19 openers at Fenway). Brayan Bello has much better career numbers at home. The Orioles have been a little disappointing lineup-wise since blowing up for 24 combined runs in the first two games.

Boston played two exhibition games in Texas after leaving their spring training facility, before traveling to Seattle, Oakland and Los Angeles last week. After that west coast road trip, this feels like a flat spot for the Red Sox bats, even with an off-day yesterday. Despite allowing nine hits and running into "trouble" in his last start, Corbin Burnes worked to finish just one out shy of a quality start. Brayan Bello has allowed three home runs in 10 innings so far, and just gave up four runs in five innings to the A's last time out. The O's offense has been a little suspect but I think they win this one and get rid of the bad taste from Sunday's 9th inning loss.

My simulations make the Orioles 60 percent winners with Corbin Burnes vs. Brayan Bello which implies this line should be -150. I expect Bello to really struggle with Henderson, Rutschman, and Santander from the left side of the plate. I played this -129 on SuperBook and would play it up to -140.