It’s tough to go against the hometown team. However, this is more a fade of Bailey Falter. In his first outing of the season, Falter was roughed up by the, still winless, Marlins. He went four innings, allowing five hits and six earned runs. All of Pittsburgh’s wins this season have come against two of the bottom teams in the league, the Marlins, and Nationals, with a combined record of 2-13. Tyler Well is the better pitcher with the better bullpen backing him in this series.

Tyler Wells vs Bailey Falter is a mismatch in my opinion, as I'm not too fond of Falter but I do think Wells can be a quality stater in MLB. Wells went six innings last time, and has the support of his Manager Brandon Hyde, who mentioned he showed great ability to adjust mid-game last start. The first two innings of that start could have spelled disaster for Wells, as he gave up four runs on five hits, while leaning on his fastball. After adjusting to throw more changeups and off-speed pitches, he held the Angels scoreless while sending down 14 batters in a row at one point. At this price, I'm fine being on the "other" side of 15.5 outs.

Tyler Wells can be very pitch efficient. He doesn't chase Ks and lets his defense do the work. And, he doesn't walk people - led MLB in WHIP first half last season. Looked very good against PIT last year and sees them a ton in the Grapefruit League and I like the matchups. I project him going 5 2/3 or more.