I was already leaning toward the over in this game. Both offenses are primed to go against a number four starter (Jose Urquidy) and a likely tandem from the Rangers (Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning) in a ballpark where both smoke the ball. Now word has come down that the roof will be open and the ball flies in that park with the roof open, almost to the extreme. It becomes one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors. Ride that over.

Playing to form, these Astros, still curiously better on the road (3-0) than at home (1-3) in the playoffs after the same in the regular season (39-42 at Minute Maid, 51-30 away!). Dusty Baker has also suddenly found another viable option for his rotation in Jose Urquidy, who was struggling enough earlier this season to be put in the bullpen midway in summer but delivering hen called back into the rotation his last two outings, allowing just 2 runs and 5 hits thru 11 2/3 IP and earning wins vs. the D-backs and Twins. Meanwhile Andrew Heaney looms as a "stretch opener" for Bruce Bochy, who likely uses Thursday as a bullpen game after Max Scherzer's bumpy Game 3 taxed the relief corps.

Jose Urquidy pitched 63 innings this season, posting a 5.29 ERA, as he was limited by a shoulder injury. His one postseason start at Minnesota went well, but the Twins strike out more than any team. Current Rangers own a collective .538 slugging percentage and .812 OPS against Urquidy. Andrew Heaney hasn't dominated Astros batters in his career, but he is more suited to keeping the ball in the park due to the ground balls he induces. Back the Rangers to jump on Urquidy early and hold on for the win.

I'm sure all the other SL experts will do Houston ML, and I totally get it -- and it has been strange how few one-run games there have been in these playoffs as usually there are many. I simply prefer not to sweat if it's a close game late and it's something I'm invested in. If this were a Korean Baseball Organization game, for example, that I didn't really care about or would even check in on (only time I did about the KBO was during pandemic), then sure you take the better value on the ML dog. Absolutely feels like Houston, Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker got their mojo back last night.