The Pirates finally got some offense in Monday's 4-0 win in Baltimore, ending a 12-game stretch in which they had been held to three or fewer. I like them to build on that "breakout" against Tigers starter Michael Lorenzen (1-2, 4.18 ERA). He allows a lot of contact with just 19 strikeouts in 28 innings. If Pittsburgh starter Luis Ortiz gets in trouble, he has a fresh bullpen behind him thanks to strong pitching performances the past two games. Take Pittsburgh as a sneaky underdog.

Teams going in very opposite directions as the Bucs have lost 11 of 13 with their offense largely disappearing. Detroit has won eight of 12 and Michael Lorenzen has been a big part of that with back-to-back excellent starts against Cleveland and the Mets, two teams with better lineups than Pittsburgh. Detroit's Riley Greene is starting to live up to his once-touted prospect status as he has at least one hit in 15 of his last 17 games, batting .353/.397/.471 with five doubles, a homer and nine RBIs in that stretch. Closer Alex Lange has not allowed a run in 14 straight games, the longest streak of his career. Because the Tigers were off Monday, he should be available.

The Pirates have come back down to earth. Over the last 15 days, they’re hitting .180 with a .547 OPS as compared to the Tigers hitting .251 with a .695 OPS. Pittsburgh’s Luis Ortiz gave up seven hits and two earned runs in his season debut against Colorado and could struggle with this surging Tigers lineup. Detroit’s Michael Lorenzen has allowed two earned runs in his last 14 innings pitched and is backed by bullpen performing very well currently.

Mitch Keller isn’t pitching today and the trend lately has been to bet against the Pirates when he’s not starting. The Bucs have fallen and they can’t get up, but they’re still 22-19 this season. Over the last week, the Pirates have averaged just 2-runs scored per game while hitting only .194. The Tigers are scoring just 3.6 runs per game the entire season. Big total number tonight. I’m Under the total in this one.