Pablo Lopez has an 11.34 ERA and 2.34 WHIP against the Mets this year. At least seven runs were scored in all four of Lopez' starts against NY, and he alone allowed at least six runs in three of these starts. On the other hand, Carlos Carrasco has a 2.10 ERA against the Marlins, and the Mets won all four of his starts. Still, Carrasco typically gets lots of offensive support, as seven or more runs have been scored in 14 of his last 16 starts. The Mets could hit this by themselves, and at a lowly seven, I'll take the over for even money.

The Mets only have a one-game lead over the Braves and have to visit them this coming weekend, so they'll be playing this one like it's the playoffs. The Marlins have a lame duck manager and haven't won a series over a team that isn't in last place in well over a month. The Mets crushed Pablo Lopez last time they saw him (10 H, 8 ER, 3.2 IP) and he has a 5.57 ERA in the second half with the Marlins having gone 3-9 in those 12 starts. The Mets have won Carlos Carrasco's last three starts and 2/3 of them all season. He has a 2.42 ERA since the beginning of July. The Mets bullpen is rested, too. This shouldn't be a problem, so we're rocking the run line here (-1.5, +105).