Winds are blowing out at Fenway, and I don't trust Griffin Jax to keep the Red Sox in check. The Over is 37-19-3 when the Twins are away from home and 35-17-2 when they are the underdog. They're essentially unable to keep runs off the board most nights. Minnesota should be able to score a few off Tanner Houck, who's yet to record a win this year, and then I trust Boston's offense to do the rest of the work and score a good number of runs.

Griffin Jax has been pitching well lately having allowed three runs or fewer in five straight starts. Tanner Houck has also been pitching well but he hasn’t been getting deep into games, and the Red Sox bullpen has been bad lately. The Twins were playing well until they ran into their kryptonite in the Yankees and the Red Sox were very close to losing two of three at home to the Rangers. Take the value in the Twins.